Power sector¶
The power sector distinguishes two power commodities, namely centralized electricity and decentralized electricity.
Centralized electricity can be generated using various fuels and technologies and is consumed directly in end-use sectors.
Decentralized electricity, is specifically generated from wind, solar, or bioenergy without carbon capture and storage (CCS). It is primarily used in the production of hydrogen or synthetic fuels. The power sector can be decarbonized with carbon capture (CC) and storage (CCS) technologies as well as renewables.
Technologies¶
Fossil fuel with and without CC¶
The techno-economics assumed for the various fossil-fired plants are listed in Table 1 without CC and in Table 2 with CC. The annual availability factor and the discount rate are uniformely set to 90% and 10% respectively for all technologies. The construction duration of assets is 4 years (Irlam, 2017) regardless the unit is equipped with carbon capture, but the lifespan of assets equiped with carbon capture is 25 years againt 30 years. The regional variation of techno-economics is taken into consideration based on the findings of Ferrari et al. (2019). Carbon capture becomes available as of 2030.
Table 1: Techno-economic assumptions of fossil-fired power plants without CC
Fossil fuel plant |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Variable O&M |
Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
[$/GJ] |
|
Coal-fired plant - atmospheric fluidized bed |
1961 |
89 |
44% |
|
Coal-fired plant - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle |
2265 |
74 |
3.1 |
38% |
Coal-fired plant - Pulverized coal subcritical |
1429 |
38 |
2.5 |
37% |
Coal-fired plant - Pulverized coal supercritical |
1468 |
41 |
1.2 |
36% |
Coal-fired plant - Pulverized coal ultra supercritical |
1665 |
44 |
1.1 |
41% |
Gas-fired plant - Fuel cells |
4234 |
64 |
54% |
|
Gas-fired plant - Steam turbine |
1188 |
27 |
0.1 |
40% |
Gas-fired plant - Combined Cycle |
429 |
23 |
0.2 |
61% |
Advanced oil-gas turbine |
339 |
17 |
40% |
|
Oil-fired plant - Base-load generation |
749 |
3 |
2.8 |
37% |
Oil-fired plant - Peak-load generation |
672 |
8 |
4.3 |
32% |
Oil-fired plant - Steam turbine |
1188 |
27 |
0.1 |
40% |
Table 2: Techno-economic assumptions of fossil-fired power plants with CC
Fossil fuel plant |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Variable O&M |
Efficiency |
Capture rate |
Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
[$/GJ] |
|||
NGCC with post capture |
1366 |
40 |
0.3 |
55% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Advanced turbines with post capture |
763 |
24 |
0.7 |
36% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
NGCC with post capture 90% |
1211 |
45 |
0.3 |
56% |
90.0% |
IEAGHG |
NGCC with post capture 98,5% |
1305 |
48 |
0.4 |
54% |
98.5% |
IEAGHG |
NGCC with post capture 90% FGR |
1149 |
43 |
0.2 |
56% |
90.0% |
IEAGHG |
NGCC with post capture 98,5% FGR |
1210 |
45 |
0.2 |
55% |
98.5% |
IEAGHG |
IGCC with post capture |
4874 |
96 |
5.6 |
31% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Supercritical pulverized coal with oxycombustion |
3479 |
64 |
1.6 |
29% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Supercritical pulverized coal with oxycombustion ITM |
3204 |
58 |
1.5 |
29% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Ultrasupercritical pulverized coal with oxycombustion |
3343 |
61 |
1.4 |
37% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Supercritical pulverized coal with post capture1 |
3454 |
55 |
4.6 |
33% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Supercritical pulverized coal with post capture2 |
3479 |
66 |
2.3 |
29% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Ultrasupercritical pulverized coal with post capture |
3420 |
64 |
2.0 |
33% |
90.0% |
GCCSI |
Ultrasupercritical pulverized coal with post capture 90% |
3585 |
80 |
3.3 |
37% |
90.0% |
IEAGHG |
Ultrasupercritical pulverized coal with post capture 98,5% |
3797 |
85 |
3.7 |
35% |
98.5% |
IEAGHG |
Bioenergy with and without CC¶
The techno-economic assumptions for bioenergy-fired plants, as summarized in Table 3, are based on data from Kang (2017). To account for the additional costs of integrating a carbon capture unit, we assume that the required effort is equivalent to that for coal-fired power plants. The same scaling factors used for coal with carbon capture are used for bioenergy as well (Table 4).
Table 3: Techno-economic assumptions of bioenergy-fired power plants without CC
Technology |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Variable O&M |
Efficiency |
Availability factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
[$/GJ] |
||
Pellet direct combustion |
1898 |
67 |
3.3 |
39% |
85% |
Pellet gasification |
2149 |
86 |
4.5 |
40% |
90% |
Torrefied pellets direct combustion |
1898 |
67 |
3.3 |
39% |
85% |
Torrefied pellets gasification |
2149 |
86 |
4.5 |
41% |
90% |
Table 4: Techno-economic assumptions of bioenergy-fired power plants with CC
Technology |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Variable O&M |
Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
[$/GJ] |
|
Pellet direct combustion with carbon capture |
3419 |
99 |
6.5 |
28% |
Pellet gasification with carbon capture |
3932 |
112 |
8.2 |
30% |
Torrefied pellets direct combustion with carbon capture |
3419 |
99 |
6.5 |
28% |
Torrefied pellets gasification with carbon capture |
3932 |
112 |
8.2 |
29% |
Co-firing with and without CC¶
The simultaneous firing of coal and bioenergy takes various forms:
the substitution rate of biomass ranges from 5% to 40%
different types of biomass may be used including solid biomass, pellets, or torrefied pellets
the fuels can either be fed seperately or together at the burner, or they may be co-milled
the fuels can either be gasified or pulverized
Table 5 summarizes the techno-economic assumptions for co-firing processes. The same scaling factor as for coal with carbon capture are applied with co-firing processes (Table 6)
Table 5: Techno-economic assumptions for co-firing processes (Kang, 2017)
Technology |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Variable O&M |
Efficiency |
Input Share |
Input Share |
Input Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
[$/GJ] |
Solid biomass |
Pellets |
Torrefied pellets |
|
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2746 |
96 |
0.62 |
47% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
47% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
47% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
47% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
47% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
47% |
40% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
46% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
46% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
45% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
45% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
44% |
40% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2746 |
96 |
0.62 |
46% |
5% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2746 |
96 |
0.62 |
47% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
47% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
47% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2746 |
96 |
0.62 |
47% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
47% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
47% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2746 |
96 |
0.62 |
47% |
40% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel |
3159 |
126 |
0.62 |
47% |
40% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2987 |
149 |
0.62 |
47% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2067 |
72 |
0.70 |
47% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
47% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
47% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
47% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Sperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
47% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
47% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
46% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
46% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
46% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
46% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
45% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2067 |
72 |
0.70 |
46% |
5% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2067 |
72 |
0.70 |
47% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
47% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
47% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2067 |
72 |
0.70 |
47% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
47% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
47% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling |
2067 |
72 |
0.70 |
47% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel |
2480 |
99 |
0.70 |
47% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding |
2308 |
115 |
0.70 |
47% |
40% |
Table 6: Techno-economic assumptions of co-firing processes with CC
Technology |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Variable O&M |
Efficiency |
Input share |
Input Share |
Input Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
[$/GJ] |
Solid biomass |
Pellets |
Torrefied pellets |
|
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
4947 |
142.0 |
1.4 |
37% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
5690 |
186.7 |
1.4 |
37% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
5381 |
220.7 |
1.4 |
37% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
5690 |
186.7 |
1.4 |
37% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
5381 |
220.7 |
1.4 |
37% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
5690 |
186.7 |
1.4 |
37% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
5381 |
220.7 |
1.4 |
37% |
10% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
5690 |
186.7 |
1.4 |
36% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
5381 |
220.7 |
1.4 |
36% |
20% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
5690 |
186.7 |
1.4 |
35% |
40% |
||
Air Blown IGCC.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
4947 |
142.0 |
1.4 |
37% |
5% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
3724 |
106.9 |
1.4 |
38% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
38% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
38% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
38% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
38% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
38% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
37% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
39% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
37% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Sperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
37% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Prallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
36% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
3724 |
106.9 |
1.4 |
35% |
5% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
3724 |
106.9 |
1.4 |
38% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
38% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
38% |
10% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
3724 |
106.9 |
1.4 |
38% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
38% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
38% |
20% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Co-milling with carbon capture |
3724 |
106.9 |
1.4 |
38% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Parallel with carbon capture |
4467 |
146.6 |
1.4 |
38% |
40% |
||
Pulverized Coal.Co-Firing. Seperate feeding with carbon capture |
4158 |
170.5 |
1.4 |
38% |
40% |
Renewables¶
Wind Water Solar (WWS)¶
Detailed country-level potentials for onshore and offshore wind, photovoltaic, and hydro are used. Wind potentials are segmented by resource class, distance from transmission, and, for offshore wind, depth. Each country-level segment has its own cost, resulting in a detailed global wind supply curve. PV potential is similarly segmented by resource class within each country. Hydro is specified by a three-step cost supply curve.
Due to the very explicit, technology-rich description of WWS, Table 7 summarizes statistically the capital cost of WWS by grouping them by technology, class and year. In brackets are shown the 5th and 95th percentiles of capital costs.
Table 7: Present and future median capital cost for WWS technologies (in $/kW). Values under brackets represent the 5th and 95 percentiles.
Technology |
Class |
2018 |
2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
Hydro |
1 |
2231 [1281 - 6000] |
2231 [1281 - 6000] |
Hydro |
2 |
4335 [1737 - 8000] |
4335 [1737 - 8000] |
Hydro |
3 |
6920 [2923 - 10099] |
6920 [2923 - 10099] |
Solar PV |
1245 [1020 - 2144] |
1011 [829 - 1741] |
|
Wind offshore |
4277 [3585 - 4277] |
3411 [2859 - 3411] |
|
Wind onshore |
2565 [1616 - 3805] |
2030 [1279 - 3012] |
Ocean¶
The techno-economic assumptions for tidal and wave power generation are summarized in Table 8.
Table 8: Techno-economic assumptions for tide and wave
Technology |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Lifetime |
Availability factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
years |
|
Tide |
3750 |
123 |
20 |
34% |
Wave |
2750 |
37 |
20 |
34% |
Geothermal energy¶
The techno-economic assumptions for tidal and wave power generation are summarized in Table 9. Three type of geothermal power plants are distinguished depending on the depth. Process emissions are associated to the extractionf of geothermal energy, accounting for the native CO2 trapped into rocks and released to atmosphere by 0.02 kgCO2/GJ.
Table 9: Techno-economic assumptions for geothermal power generation
Technology |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Construction duration |
Lifespan |
Efficiency |
Availability factor |
Discount rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Units |
[$/kW] |
[$/kW] |
years |
years |
|||
Shallow |
2592 |
103 |
7 |
40 |
10% |
85% |
13% |
Deep |
4587 |
151 |
7 |
40 |
10% |
85% |
13% |
Very deep |
14664 |
277 |
8 |
40 |
10% |
85% |
13% |
Combined heat and power (CHP)¶
Table 10: Techno-economic assumptions for CHP
Fuel |
CAPEX |
Fixed O&M |
Heat-to-power ratio |
Construction duration |
Lifespan |
Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pellets |
3750 |
100 |
1.50 |
4 |
25 |
41% |
Torrefied pellets |
3750 |
100 |
1.50 |
4 |
25 |
42% |
Coal |
3250 |
105 |
2.42 |
4 |
40 |
28% |
Gas |
1101 |
34 |
1.42 |
4 |
25 |
41% |
Geothermal energy |
10000 |
250 |
3.33 |
7 |
40 |
14% |
Oil |
1150 |
250 |
1.31 |
4 |
20 |
37% |
Constraints¶
The penetration of intermittent renewables is limited empirically to 35% of total electricity generation for each region and timeslice. The early penetration of renewables (from 2018 to 2028) is driven by additional capacities and total production according to IEA Renewable 2023 Dataset (IEA, 2024).
References
Irlam, L., 2017. Global CCS Institute : Global Costs of Carbon Capture and Storage. Global CCS Institute.
IEAGHG, 2020. Techno-Economic Benchmarks for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants with CO2 Capture (No. 2020– 07).
Ferrari, N., Mancuso, L., Burnard, K., Consonni, F., 2019. Effects of plant location on cost of CO2 capture. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90, 102783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102783
Kang, S., 2017. La place de la bioénergie dans un monde sobre en carbone: Analyse prospective et développement de la filière biomasse dans le modèle TIAM-FR. MINES ParisTech.